In the first week of 2025, Nigel Farage told me his ultimate goal was to become prime minister. It stuck in my mind that he chose to add: "I'm not joking."
Nobody in the two traditional main parties finds his stunning success this week funny. "Farage is no longer someone we can just laugh off," a former Conservative cabinet minister told me. If the idea of Farage in No 10 seemed outlandish in January, the backing of millions of voters this week shows it's not a wild notion.
The next General Election is, of course, miles away. Parties can surge and sink. But this week's results show that Farage has changed the race.
For Labour, it's a race to prove that government can actually be a force for good. Minister after minister trotted out the same lines as the results came in – waiting lists are starting to come down, the minimum wage has gone up, and new breakfast clubs are opening in schools. I could almost recite their script by the end of our election coverage.
There is little appetite in No 10 to budge on any of the big decisions they've already made, however many times internal critics, and increasing numbers of loyalists, complain about cutting winter fuel payments or raising employer National Insurance contributions.
But Downing Street is desperate to show that despite its unpopularity in the polls and grisly performance in real elections, there are signs of progress. Labour is well aware its main rival at the next election could be Reform, not the Tories – the disappointment and disillusionment felt by some in the UK finding a voice in Farage.
Yet has the party's top brass understood how serious the threat could be?
One party veteran suggests it's only "just starting to dawn" on those at the top, warning "the coming years could be existential for Labour".
While the government can 'do', opposition parties can only 'say'. For the Tories it's now a race to look like a serious outfit and for Kemi Badenoch it's a race to become not just a leader who voters recognise, but one they warm to.
In politics it's often said you're quick or you're dead – but the Conservative leader's pitch to her party was "Renewal 2030", and she's repeatedly suggested her approach is to have a long, hard think about what the party should do next.
There is a push for Badenoch to do more faster, and to be more visible. A former council leader has called for her to resign.
Another said the "main part of the job is grabbing attention – it doesn't matter what you do if no-one sees or hears".
Badenoch will join us on Sunday's programme alongside Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey, Green co-leader Adrian Ramsay and Zia Yusuf, chairman of Reform UK.
